digital currency and monetary policy

Shanghai Airlines Exchange: This week, the export container transportation market was basically stable, and the market freight rates fluctuated. According to Shanghai Airlines Exchange, this week, the export container transportation market in China was basically stable, and different routes were divided due to their different supply and demand fundamentals, and the comprehensive index rose. On December 13th, the comprehensive freight index of Shanghai export containers released by Shanghai Shipping Exchange was 2,384.40 points, up 5.7% from the previous period.Two-way opening-up continues to deepen, and foreign-funded institutions continue to be optimistic about China's capital market. Near the end of the year, many foreign-funded institutions have issued investment strategies for 2025. Foreign-funded institutions generally believe that a series of incremental policies since the end of September are gradually exerting their effects, providing strong support for China's stable economic growth and high-quality development. At the same time, the interconnection of financial markets continues to deepen, and the system of qualified foreign investors continues to be optimized, which also makes foreign investors' interest in investing in China continue to rise. Many foreign-funded institutions such as Goldman Sachs, UBS and Morgan Asset Management continue to be optimistic about the market outlook of China's capital market. Xing Ziqiang, chief economist of Morgan Stanley in China, said that the regulatory authorities are increasingly friendly to foreign investment, and the attention of overseas long-term capital and foreign investors to China is also developing in a positive direction. With the coordinated efforts of reform, it is believed that China's economy and market confidence will continue to stabilize and rebound. (Securities Times)CITIC Securities: The growth rate of supply is expected to move down rapidly, and there is room for aluminum price increase. According to the research report of CITIC Securities, the growth rate of global electrolytic aluminum production is expected to be 3.6%/2.2%/1.7%/0.9% from 2024 to 2027, showing a rapid downward trend. At the same time, our calculation results show that the incentive price of overseas electrolytic aluminum projects may be as high as 3000 US dollars /24000 yuan. The current aluminum price is difficult to stimulate overseas capacity expansion. We are optimistic about the rising space of aluminum price and the allocation value of aluminum plate under the background of strong supply constraints. Maintain the aluminum plate "stronger than the market" rating.

 CICC: Give GM an initial rating that outperforms the broader market, with a target price of $65.The United Nations Security Council discussed the situation in Central Africa. China called on the international community to provide targeted help. On December 13, local time, the United Nations Security Council discussed the situation in Central Africa. The Chinese representative said that the current situation in Central Africa is generally stable, and the international community should provide targeted and constructive help in a timely manner to support regional countries in taking a development path in line with their own national conditions. The meeting was briefed by Abari, Special Representative of the UN Secretary-General for Central Africa and Director of the UN Regional Office for Central Africa. Geng Shuang, Deputy Permanent Representative of China to the United Nations, said that it is necessary to maintain the overall positive momentum of the regional situation. In the past six months, the situation in Central Africa has been generally stable and the political peace process has made positive progress. Gabon held a constitutional referendum according to the established timetable, Rwanda successfully held a general election, and Chad continued to advance the process of peace and reconciliation. The progress is worthy of recognition and welcome. At present, many countries are actively preparing for general or local elections. We hope that all political forces in the countries concerned will strengthen dialogue and consultation, bridge differences, build consensus and steadily advance the political process. The international community should provide targeted and constructive help in a timely manner and support regional countries to take the development path that suits their own national conditions.

From now on, the sunny and dry mode will be started in the central and eastern regions, and the temperature in many places in the south will hit a new low. On the whole, from today to the 17th, most of the weather in the northwest to the central and eastern regions will be sunny and dry. December is also one of the driest months in the second half of the year in the central and eastern regions, so the public should pay attention to replenish water in time. Around the 18th, the precipitation in the whole country will increase again, so it is necessary to pay attention to the weather changes in time and take corresponding precautions. This cold air that is affecting China will continue to move eastward and southward, and the areas with the highest temperature and low innovation will be concentrated in Jianghuai to the southeast coastal areas. In big cities, Nanjing, Shanghai, Fuzhou, Guangzhou and Haikou will have the coldest day in the second half of the year. At the same time, the minimum temperature is also obviously downward. It is estimated that the lowest temperature will be below 0℃ in many places from the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River to the central and northern Guizhou tomorrow and the day after tomorrow. In the city, tomorrow morning, the lowest temperature in Changsha, Hangzhou and Nanjing will only be around 0℃, and it will feel cold. (Weather in China)Wafer factory "bargains for orders"? Insiders: It's not so exaggerated that there is no need for drastic price reduction at present. Recently, some industry media reported that the Chinese mainland wafer foundry has overflowed its capacity and is striving for more IC design factory orders to return at a low price discount. A manager of Chinese mainland Head Wafer Factory told reporters that the actual situation was "not as serious as reported by the media, and not so exaggerated". The source said that since the fourth quarter of this year, the quotation of its wafer factory has been "stable at present". In the fourth quarter, product orders from display drivers, power management and other categories were "not bad", and the market demand was similar to that previously publicly disclosed. The independent control of the mainland market is still the main theme. It is understood that the fourth quarter is usually the "off-season" of the wafer foundry industry, and downstream customers will review the sales plan at the beginning of the year, and they are not willing to stock up and receive goods. A person from a consumer chip company in Chinese mainland said, "Fab factories generally adjust prices according to market supply and demand." Yang Shengxin, a senior analyst of Sigmaintell's semiconductor business unit, said in an interview that according to the observation of Sigma Intell, Chinese mainland's wafer factory decreased by about 5% in the fourth quarter of 2024, and concentrated on 12-inch products; The price of China Taiwan Province Wafer Factory has not changed significantly. (science and technology innovation board Daily)Antaike: The global nickel industry surplus is expected to narrow, and the nickel price may decline. The Antaike report shows that the nickel price will rise and fall in the first half of 2024, because the supporting cost below is still there. After the price reached a staged low in late July, the whole price showed a pattern of bottoming out and falling resistance, and the upward and downward momentum was not strong. Returning to the fundamentals itself, oversupply and the staged improvement of downstream consumption have limited room for price rise. On the whole, the price of nickel basically fluctuated within a narrow range this year. The highest nickel in Shanghai was 160,000, and the lowest was 119,000, mainly in the range of 120,000-140,000. Looking forward to the next year, it is expected that the upward and downward momentum of nickel price is not strong, and the main contradiction is still on the supply side. In 2025, it is expected that the price difference between products and inside and outside will further converge, and the price center of gravity will move down. It is expected that the nickel will be in the range of 14,500-18,500 US dollars/ton; The range of Shanghai nickel is 120,000-170,000 yuan/ton.